Adderall Literature Review Essay Example for Free

Adderall Literature Review Essay According to DSM-IV (2005), Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) is defined as â€Å"persistent pattern of inattention and/or hyperactivity-impulsivity that is more frequently displayed and is more severe than is typically observed in individuals at comparable level of development.† A recent study suggests that 9% of U.S. school-aged children (3-17) are diagnosed with ADHD (US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 2010). At first, there was a misconception in society that ADHD only affected children and that eventually they would outgrow it. However, recent data suggests that 4. 4% of the U.S. adult population have ADHD. Studies also indicate that 30%-70% of children with ADHD continue to have symptoms as adults. (Desantis, 2008, p. 31) See more: Experiment on polytropic process Essay In terms of treating ADHD, Adderall is the most commonly prescribed medicine for children and adults. According to Desantis (as cited in Okie, 2006), â€Å"The number of American adults who are prescribed medication to treat the disorder has increased by 90% from 2002 to 2005, with adults receiving one-third of all prescriptions† (p. 32). Shire Pharmaceuticals introduced Adderall in 1996. In 2001, Shire introduced an extended release version known as Adderall XR. Adderall is a mixed salt amphetamine. It works to increase concentration and focus by stimulating the production of dopamine and norepinephrine in the brain (Schiffner, 2010). For individuals with ADHD, Adderall produces enough dopamine and norepinephrine in the brain to bring them to a normal state of functioning and focus. For individuals without ADHD, Adderall tends to over-stimulate the brain, which results in an even higher level of functioning and focus. Adderall, along with cocaine and other substances, is classified as a Schedule II substance because of its potential for abuse and dependency both physically and psychologically. Consumption of Adderall by College Students The main subject being explored throughout this paper is the use of Adderall among college students. There have been numerous studies that have explored the overall usage of Adderall, but only a few have focused specifically on its consumption by college students. Studies have also been done on the illegal usage of other stimulants among college students, which highlight relative statistics. Nichols (2004) indicated, â€Å"†¦the United States Department of Health and Human Services found in an annual survey of drug use that 1.8 million Americans between the ages of 18 and 25, or 6 percent of those surveyed, admitted having taken Ritalin an older stimulant used to treat attention-deficit disorder without a prescription† (p. A41). This study indicates that there is a growing population of college students who consume non-prescribed stimulants. McCabe et al (2005), conducted a study in which 10,904 students were surveyed at 119 different 4-year colleges in the United States. From that study McCabe et al (2005) found that 6.9% of the students surveyed used an illegal prescription stimulant in their life. 4.1% of which used an illegal prescription stimulant in the past year. Also for the study, McCabe et al (2005) found that non-medical prescription stimulant users were â€Å"more likely to report use of alcohol, cigarettes, marijuana, ecstasy, cocaine, and other risky behaviors† (p. 96). Loe et al (2008) conducted a study on Adderall and Ritalin amongst the college population and results showed that students â€Å"†¦may resort to medical means to manage their time and to perform well inside and outside of the classroom† (p.8). Although the primary use of the drug is for academic purposes, students also turn to it for recreational purposes. Statistically, Loe et al (2008) reported, â€Å"75% of the students who took these meds indicated doing so for academic purposes. Students also list taking them for fun (68%), to stay awake (56%), and to party (50%) as other reasons† (p.8). Adderall may also help young adults improve their driving ability. It has been reported that individuals with ADHD are more likely to be at fault in driving accidents (Burgbacher and Brewer, 2006, p. 7) (as cited in Kay, 2005). This data indicates that students are finding alternative reasons for using stimulants and not just for academic purposes. Desantis et al (2008) surveyed 1,811 students at a large public institution in the southeast. Of the students surveyed, only 4% reported having a prescription to ADHD while 34% reported having used ADHD medication illegally (p. 32). Desantis et al (2008) also indicated that only 2% of the students believed Schedule II amphetamines posed a health risk. 81% of the students believed that ADHD medications were â€Å"not dangerous at all† or â€Å"slightly dangerous† (Desantis et al 2008, p. 33) More recently, Schwarz (2013), in an article for the New York Times, indicated (as cited in I.M.S. Health, 2011) that nearly 14 million monthly prescriptions for the condition were written for Americans ages 20-39, two and half times the 5.6 million just 4 years before. (p. 18) Each of these studies reported similar statistics and similar trends growing amongst the college population. Each study reported a high rate of students consuming non-medical ADHD medications. The more alarming statistic revealed by these studies is that non-medical prescription stimulant users were more likely to abuse other drugs and also believed that ADHD medications were not dangerous at all. This indicates that Adderall and other ADHD medications are becoming a gateway drug. It is also indicates that students may be justifying their usage of non-medical consumption of ADHD medication. Attainment of Adderall Studies show that Adderall is used very often which indicates that it is not difficult for a student to attain. Evidently, those without prescriptions find it rather easy to obtain Adderall. On college campuses, there are usually peers selling or willing to give away Adderall, which is a federal crime. Stolz (2012) put much of the blame on universities by stating that, â€Å"Universities are a large part of the problem. Student can simply go to the health clinic on campus and obtain a prescription for Adderall or an ADHD diagnosis. The process is easy for most, and many students are misdiagnosed in that manner. University clinics eliminate the need for these students to find and make appointments with a psychiatrist, which may take months and entails more stringent testing prior to diagnosis.† (p. 586) Studies also show that, along with universities, physicians often prescribe ADHD prescriptions without performing exact assessments that physicians are trained to perform (Nichols, 2004).   Furthermore, money is also areason for a student to seek an Adderall prescription. Based on the previous statistics mentioned, it is widely known that there is a high demand for Adderall on a college campus, which makes it a profitable investment. Not only does the individual who obtains the prescription benefit from the enhancement of their own academic performance, but also the potential to earn income by selling the pills (Stolz, 2012, p. 586). Loe et al (2008) reported that â€Å"Of the 68 students who claimed to have taken prescription stimulants without a prescription, a large majority, 87%, received the drugs from friends and family and 26% purchased the drug.† (p. 9). This statistic further verifies the simplicity in obtaining prescription stimulants. Health Concerns in Correlation with Adderall Consumption Along with the upside of the drug, as with any other drug, there is a downside that negatively affects individuals physically and psychologically. Negative side effects of Adderall consumption include difficulty sleeping, loss of appetite, seizures, uncontrolled shaking and body movements, and hallucinations (Schiffner, 2010). The Medical Guide for Adderall (which is approved by the U.S. Food and Drug administrations) lists common side effects as, â€Å"Headache, decreased appetite, stomach ache, nervousness, trouble sleeping, mood swings, weight loss, dizziness, dry mouth, and fast heart beat† (Medication Guide, 2011, p. 17)   More drastic side effects may result from long periods of Adderall consumption, especially for individuals who do not have ADHD. Ultimately, this long term consumption can result in severe physical and psychological dependence. In a recent article in the New York Times, Schwarz (2013) (as cited from The Journal of Drug and Alcohol Dependence, 2006) wrote, â€Å"†¦about 10 percent of adolescents and young adults who misused ADHD stimulants became addicted to them. Even proper, doctor supervised use of the medications can trigger psychotic behavior or suicidal thoughts in about 1 in 400 patients, according to a 2006 study in the American Journal of Psychiatry† (p. 18). In March 2005, Health Canada actually suspended the sale of Adderall XR based on 20 international reports of sudden death in patients (Kratochvil, 2005). Evidently, the long-term use of Adderall can cause major health issues including, severe dependence, psychotic behaviors, possible suicidal ideations, and even sudden death. Justifications for Illegal use of Adderall and Other Attention-deficit Medications In society, individuals with drug and substance abuse issues often try to justify their abuse. The main goal of Desantis’ (2008) study was to see how college students â€Å"conceive the drug and justify its use† (p.35). The first justification was comparing ADHD stimulants to party drugs. They asserted that it was morally justifiable to use ADHD stimulants because it was to promote a positive outcome (Desantis, 2008 p. 36). Another assertion was that ADHD stimulants were â€Å"good†, legal drugs because they come from medical establishments rather than â€Å"bad,† illegal street drugs (Desantis, 2008, p. 36). Other participants believed that there’s no high because it does not alter their mind and pose the same side effects in comparison to other illegal street drugs (Desantis, 2008 pp. 36-37). Other justifications indicated in Desantis’ (2008) study were that students use ADHD stimulants in moderation and therefore it is not harmful. Other students maintained that they use stimulants to self-medicate because they believe they have ADHD themselves and have not been diagnosed. The final rationalization is that ADHD stimulants are â€Å"harmless, benign, and a socially acceptable anti-fatigue aid† (Desantis, 2008, pp. 38-41). All in all, the previous research supplies recent qualitative and quantitative data that implies that Adderall and other ADHD stimulant consumption among the college population is a recurring and growing trend. Research also maintained that universities and physicians are also responsible for the drugs circulation. As a result of this research, it is evident that college-aged individuals are unaware of the major physical and psychological risks that can result from the illegal consumption of Adderall and also believe that their consumption is justifiable within society. For this study, a survey will be anonymously distributed among college campuses in the area containing both quantitative and qualitative questions about their experience and/or knowledge of Adderall. The sample population will be college students in the area between the ages of 18-25. The sample population will be selected anonymously and will remain anonymous because the study touches upon illegal activity. I will gain access to my subjects via social media networks (facebook, twitter, etc.). From the survey, I expect to obtain pertinent information that will help understand why college students consume non-prescribed Adderall, how they gain access to Adderall, and if they are aware of the risks that come along with Adderall consumption. References Burgbacher, Katie, and Amanda Brewer â€Å"Study of Adderall Use Among College Students: A New and Upcoming Trend† University of Kentucky. RUNNING HEAD: Research Project (2006). Pp 1-19 Desantis, Alan, and Audrey Curtis Hane. Adderall is Definitely Not a Drug: Justifications for the Illegal Use of ADHD Stimulants. Substance Use Misuse 45 (2008): 31-46. Print. Diagnostic criteria for attention deficit for hyperactivity disorder, (2005). Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders. American Psychiatric Association. Kratochvil, Christopher. Health Canada suspends Adderall. Brown University Child Adolescent Psychopharmacology Update 7 (2005): 12. Print. Loe, M. E., DeWitt, C. , Quirindongo, C. and Sandler, R. , 2006-08-11 Pharming to Perform in the Classroom: Making Sense of the Medically-Disciplined College Student Body Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Sociological Association, Montreal Convention Center, Montreal, Quebec, Canada Online PDF. 2012-06-24 from http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p103442_index.html McCabe, S. E., et al (2005). Non-medical use of prescription opioids among U.S. college students: Prevalence and correlates from a national survey. Addictive Behaviors, 30(4), 96-106. Nichols, K. (2004). The other performance-enhancing drugs. Chronicle of Higher Education, 51(17), A41-A42. Okie, S. (2006). ADHD in adults. New England Journal of Medicine, 354:2637–2641. Schiffner, Jennifer. 2010. Harder, Better, Faster Stronger: Regulating Illicit Adderall Use Among Law Students and Law Schools Express Schwarz, Alan. Drowned in a stream of Prescriptions. The New York Times 3 Feb. 2013: 1, 18-20. Print. Stolz, Stefanie. Adderall Abuse: Regulating the Academic Steroid. Journal of Law and Education 41, No.3 (2011): 585-592. Print. Visser, SN, RH Bitsko, ML Danielson, and R Perou. Increasing Prevalence of Parent-Reported Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder Among Children United States, 2003 and 2007. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 59.44 (2010): 1439-1443. Print.

Stock Market Performance and Economic Relationship

Stock Market Performance and Economic Relationship Abstract: Whether national economy is affecting the stock market or other way round? A lot of studies have done on the past what are relationship of these variables. In my work I have used cointegration and Granger Causality method to find out the relationship between the stock index price and Economic growth indicator GDP. Introduction The debate of whether stock market is associated with economic growth or the stock market can be served as the economic indicator to predict future. According to many economists stock market can be a reason for the future recession if there is a huge decrease in the stock price or vice versa. However, there are evidence of controversial issue about the ability of prediction from the stock market is not reliable if there is a situation like 1987 stock market crashed followed by the economic recession and 1997 financial crises. (Stock market and economic growth in Malaysia: causality test). The aim of the study is to find the relation between the stock market performance and the real economic activity in case of four countries The UK, The USA, Malaysia and Japan. With my limited knowledge I have tried to find out the role of financial development in stimulating economic growth. A lot of economists have different view about stock market development and the economic growth. If we focus on some related literature published on this topic one question arises: Is economic development is affected by stock market development? Even though there are lots of debate on some are saying that stock market can help the economy but the effect of stock market in the economy especially in the economy is very little. Ross Levine suggested in his paper published in 1998 that recent evidence suggested stock market can really give a boom to economic growth. (REFERENCE) It is not really possible to measure the growth by simply looking at the ups and down in the stock market indicator and by looking at the rates of growth in GDP. A lot of things can cause in the growth of stock market like changes in the banking system, foreign participation in the in the financial market may participate strongly. Apparently it seems that these developments can cause development of stock market followed by the good economic growth. But to check the accuracy one required to follow an appropriate method which would meaningfully measure whether stock price is really effecting the economic growth or not? In my work I have tried to find out the co integrating relationship between Stock price and GDP and tried to check if there is a long run and short run relationship between the stock price and GDP. The method used for the studies is Engle Granger co integration method. To do this I have used ADF (Augmented Dickey Fuller Test) to check for the stationary behaviour of the variables and then I have performed the Engle Granger Engle Granger co integration method followed by residual based error correction model. To check for the short run relationship I have used 2nd stage Engle Granger co integration method. To check the causal effect of the four countries stock market and economic growth I used Granger Causality Method. In this paper I have reviewed some studies of scholars which I have discussed on the literature review part. This paper contains five parts Part two is about the literature based on the past wok of scholars. Part Three discussed about the Data. Part four is about the methodology, Results are discussed on part five and part six is all about the summary and conclusion of the whole study. In my work I have founded there is no long run relationship between stock market and economic growth in all four countries. In addition there is no causal relation between stock index yield and the national economy growth rate. The empirical results of the thesis concludes that the possibility of seemingly abnormal relationship between the stock index and national economy of these for countries. Literature Review: Stock market contributes to economic growth in different ways either directly or indirectly. The functions of stock market are savings mobilization, Liquidity creation, and Risk diversification, keep control on disintermediation, information gaining and enhanced incentive for corporate control. The relationship between stock market and economic growth has become an issue of extensive analysis. There is always a question whether the stock market directly influence economic growth. A lot of research and results shows that there is a strong relationship between stock market and economic growth. Evidence on whether financial development causes growth help to reconcile these views. If we go back to the study of Schumpeter (1912) his studies emphasizes the positive influence on the development of a countrys financial sector on the level and the potential risk of losses caused by the adverse selection and moral hazard or transaction costs are argued by him how necessary the rate of growth argues that financial sectors provides of reallocating capital to minimize the potential losses. Empirical evidence from king and Levine (1983) show that the level of financial intermediation is good predictor of long run rates of growth, capital accumulation and productivity. Enhanced liquidity of financial market leads to financial development and investors can easily diversify their risk by creating their portfolio in different investments with higher investment. Another study from Levine and Zervos (1996) using the data of 24 countries found that a strong positive correlation between stock market development and economic growth. Their expanded study on 49 countries from 1976-1993, they used Stock Market liquidity, Economic growth rate, Capital Accumulating rate and output Growth Rate. They found that all the variables are positively correlated with each other. Demiurgic and Maksimovic (1996) have found positive causal effects of financial development on economic growth in line with the ‘supply leading hypothesis. According to his studies countries with better financial system has a smooth functioning stock market tend to grow much faster as they have access to much needed funds for financially constrained economic enterprises by the large efficient banks. Related research was done for the past three decades focusing on the role of financial development in stimulating economic growth they never considered about the stock market. An empirical study by Ming Men and Rui on Stock market index and economic growth in China suggest that possible reason of apparent abnormal relationship between the stock Index and national economy in china. Apparent abnormal relationship may be because of the following reason inconsistency of Chinese GDP with the structure of its stock market, role played by private sector in growth of GDP and disequilibrium of finance structure etc. The study was done using the cointegration method and Granger causality test, the overall finding of the study is Chinese finance market is not playing an important role in economic development. (Men M 2006 China paper). An article by Indrani Chakraborti based on the case of India presented in a seminar in kolkata in October, 2006 provides some information about the existence of long run stable relationship between stosk market capitalization, bank credit and growth rate of real GDP. She used the concept of the granger causality after using both the Engle-Granger and Johansen technique. In her study she found GDP is co-integrated with financial depth, Volatility in the stock market and GDP growth is co integrated with all the findings the paper explain that the in an overall sense, economic growth is the reson for financial development in India.(Chakraboty Indrani). Few writers from Malaysia found that stock market does help to predict future economy. Stock market is associated with economic growth play as a source for new private capital. Causal relationship between the stock market and economic growth which was done by using the formal test for causality by C.J. Granger and yearly Malaysia data for the period 1977-2006. The result from the study explain that future prediction is possible by stock market. A study focused on the relationship between stock market performance and real economic activity in Turkey. The study shows existence of a long run relationship between real economic activity and stock prices†¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦ Result from the study pointed out that economic activity increases after a shock in stock prices and then declines in Turkish market from the second quarter and a unitary (Turkish paper) An international time series analysis from 1980-1990 by By RAGHURAM G. RAJAN AND LUIGI ZINGALES shows some evidence of the relation between stock market and economic growth. This paper describes whether economic growth is facilitated by financial development. He found that financial development has strong effect on economic growth. (Rajan and Zingales, 1998) The study of Ross LEVINE AND SARA ZERVOS on finding out the long run relationship between stock market and bank suggest a positive effect both the variables has positive effect on economic growth. International integration and volatility is not properly effected by capital stock market. And private save saving rates are not at all affected by these financial indicators. The study was done on 47 countries data using cross sectional analysis. In theory the conventional literature on growth was not sufficient enough to look for the connection between financial development and economic growth and the reason is they were focused on the steady state level of capital stock per workerof productivity. And they were not really concentrated on the rate of growth. Actually the main concern was legitimated to exogenous technical progress. (Levine and Zervos 1998) Belgium Stock market study with economic development shows the positive long run relationship between both the variables. In case of Belgium the evidences are quiet strong that Economic growth is caused by the development of the stock market. It is more focused between the period 1873 and 1935; basically this period is considered as the period of rapid industrialization in Belgium. The importance of the stock market in Belgium is more pronounced after liberalization of the stock market in 1867-1873. The time varying nature of the link between stock market development and economic growth is explained by the institutional change in the stock exchange. They also tried to find out the relationship to the universal banking system. Before 1873 the economic growth was based on the banking system and after 1873 stock market took the place. (Stock Market Development and economic growth in Belgium, Stijin Van Nieuwerburg, Ludo Cuyvers, Frans Buelens July 5, 2005) Senior economist of the World Banks Policy research department Ross Levine has discussed about Stock market in his paper Stock Markets: A Spur to economic growth on the impact of development. Less risky investments are possible in liquid equity market and it attracts the savers to acquire an asset, equity. As, they can sell it quickly when they need access to their savings, and if they want to alter their portfolio. Though many long term investment is required for the profitable investment. But reluctance of the investors towards long term investment as they dont have the access to their savings easily. Permanent access to capital is raised by the companies through equity issues as they are facilitating longer term, more profitable investments and prospect of long term economic growth is enhanced as liquid market improves the allocation of capital. The empirical evidence from the study strongly suggests that greater stock markets create more liquidity or at least continue economic gr owth. (Levine. R A spur to economic Growth) A lot of research has established that future economic growth is influenced by countrys financial growth, stock market index returns are another factor of economic growth. The researcher focused to extend their study; they tie together these two strings and started analyzing the relationship between banking industry, stock returns and future economic growth. Research was done on 18 developed and 18 emerging markets and the results are positive and noteworthy relationship between future GDP and stock returns. Few important features can also be predicted such as bank-accounting-disclosure standards, banking crises, insider trading law enforcement and government ownership of banks. (Bank stock returns and economic growth q Rebel A. Cole a, Fariborz Moshirian b,*, Qiongbing Wu c a Department of Finance, DePaul University, Chicago, IL 60604, USA b School of Banking and Finance, The University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia c Newcastle raduate School of Business, The University of Newcastle, Newcastle, NSW 2300, Australia Received 29 September 2006; accepted 26 July 2007Available online 21 September 2007) Another paper was focused on the linkages between financial development and economic growth using TYDL model for the empirical exercises by Purna Chandra Padhan suggests that both stock price and economic activity are integrated of order one and Johansen-Juselias Coin-integration tests for this study found one co integrating vector exists. It is proved by the spurious relation rule in this study the existence of at least one direction of causality. He described that bi-directional causality between stock price and economic growth meaning that economic activity can be enhanced by well developed stock exchange and vice-versa. ( Title:  The nexus between stock market and economic activity: an empirical analysis for India Author(s): Purna Chandra Padhan Journal: International Journal of Social Economics Year: 2007 Volume: 34 Issue: 10  Page: 741 – 753 DOI: 10.1108/03068290710816874 Publisher: Emerald Group Publishing Limited) Chee Keong Choong (Universiti Tunku Abdul Rahman Malaysia) Zulkornain Yusop (Universiti Putra Malaysia) Siong Hook Law (Universiti Putra Malaysia) Venus Liew Khim Sen (Universiti Putra Malaysia) Date of creation: 23 Jul 2003 Tried to find out the importance of the causal relationship of Financial development and economic growth. The findings of their study usin autoregressive Distributed lag (ARDL) describes about the positive long run impact on economic growth Granger causality also suggest same results. A study by Randall Filler(2000) using 70 countries data over the period 1985-1997 proves that there is a very little relationship between economic growth and stock market especially in developing countries and currency appreciation has occurred. From the result of the study we can see that an important role may be played by the stock market in an economy, and these are not essential for economic growth. However, another study on Iran by N. Shahnoushi, A.G Daneshvar, E Shori and M. Motalebi 2008 Financial development is not considered as an effective factor to the economic growth. The study was focused on the causal relationship between the financial development and economic growth. Time series data used for the study from the period 1961-2004. Granger causality shows there is no co integrating relationship between financial development and economic growth in Iran only the economical growth leads to financial development. Establishing link between savings and investment is very much important and financial market provides that. Transient or lasting growth is the ultimate affect of the financial market. Economic growth can be influenced by financial market by improving the productivity of the capital, Investment to firms can be channelled and greater capital accumulation by increasing savings. To ensure the stability of the financial market potential regulation is important due to asymmetric information, especially at the time of financial liberalization. (Economic Development and Financial Market Tosson Nabil Deabes Moderm Academy for technology aand computer sciences; MAM November 2004 Economic Development Financial Market Working Paper No. 2 ) Data: The empirical analysis was carried out using the quarterly data for The UK, The USA, Japan and Malaysia. The data were collected from the DataStream for the period 1993I to 2008III. Economic growth is measured as the growth rate of gross domestic product (GDP) of each country with the help of stock prices SP. For the software processing I used Eviews 6.0 for the planned regression in order to get the results. The empirical analysis is done from the quarterly data from the stock market indices and the and the GDP between the first quarter of 1993 and the fourth quarter of 2008. All the data has been extracted from the data stream and expressed in US$. The data for Japan share price is from Tokyo Stock Exchange. Malaysias Share price is form Kuala Lumpur Composite Index, UKs is from UK FT all share price index and USA share price is taken from the DOW Jones industrial share price index. The nature of the Data is series used for the time series regression. List of Variables: UGDP UK GDP USP UK Share price LUGDP Log of UK GDP LUSP Log of UK Share price USGDP USA GDP USSP USA (DOW Jones) Share price LUSGDP Log of USA GDP LUSSP Log of USA Share price MGDP Malaysia GDP MSP Malaysia Share price LMGDP Log of Malaysia GDP LMSP Log of Malaysia Share price JGDP Japan GDP JSP Japan Share Price LJGDP Log of Japan GDP LJSP Log of Japan Share price Methodology: Cointegration long term common stochastic trend between non stationary time series. If non-stationary series x and yare both integrated of same order and there is a linear combination of them that is stationary, they are called co integrated series. A common stochastic trend is shared in Cointegration. It follows that these two series will not drift apart too much, meaning that even they may deviate from each other in the short-term, they will revert to the long-run equilibrium. This fact makes cointegration a very powerful approach for the long-term analyses. Meanwhile, cointegration does not imply high correlation; two series can be co integrated and yet have very low correlations. Cointegration tests allow us to determine whether financial variables of different national markets move together over the long run, while providing for the possibility of short-run divergence. The first step in the analysis is to test each index series for the presence of unit roots, which shows whether the series are nonstationary. All the series must be nonstationarity and integrated of the same order. To do this, we apply both the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test. Once the stationarity requirements are met, we proceed Granger bivariate cointegration (1987) procedure. 30 International Research Journal of Finance and Economics Issue 24 (2009) Series Stationary Test: In this study I have used Augmented Dickey Fuller Test (ADF) to test the stationary of variables. The unit root test is usually used to confirm stationary of a series. The ADF is test for unit root where I have checked the Unit root and strong negative numbers of unit root is being rejected by the null hypothesis (level of significance). In this study I have used Augmented Dickey Fuller Test (ADF) to check whether the series is stationary or not. ADF test is based on the estimate of the following regression: is in this case variable of interest = , is the differencing operator, t is the time trend and is the random component of zero mean and constant variance. The parameters to be estimated are { } Null and alternative hypothesis of unit root test are: , () () Here with the test we can find the estimates of are equal to zero or not. Y is said to be stationary if the cumulative distribution of the ADF statistics by showing that if the calculated ratio of the coefficient is less than the critical value according to Fuller (1976). If we accept the Ho the sequence is predicted to be having unit root and if Ho is rejected then we can say that the series doesnt have unit root. This proves that the series is stationary. The co–integration test can only be performed if both the sequences are all integrated of order I (1). Cointegration Test: Engle and Granger (1987) first established the cointegration method. It is a method of measuring long term diversification based on data. Linear combination of two non stationary series shows that they are integrated in order one I(1) that is stationary. And this is a co integrated series. Cointegration Long term common random trend between non stationary time series. The linear combination of both the non stationary series can be stationary if both the variables are integrated in same order. Cointegration is a very powerful approach in the long term analysis because a common stochastic trend is shared in cointegration that mean two series will not drift separately too much. They might deviate from each other but in the long run but eventually the will revert back in the long run. If there is very low correlation between the series still the series can be co-integrated as high correlation is not implied in cointegration. The reason for choosing the method as it will allow us to check the move between the variable in the long run even there might be a divergence in the short run. The first step in the analysis is check each index series whether the series for the presence of unit root which shows whether the series is non stationary. The method that I followed to do this is Augmented Dickey Fuller Test (ADF). I proceed the Granger cointegration technique 1987 when the stationary requirements are met. According to Engle and Granger (1987) to check for cointegration if both the variables and are integrated with order one the proposed method for cointegration residual-based test for cointegration (Engle-Granger method). So from the above method we can find the equation By regressing with And after that and is denoted as the estimated regression coefficient vectors. After that I saved the residual from the above equation. Then, = – is representing the estimated residual vector. If the residual is integrated with order zero that means the series for the residual is stationary, and and are then co integrated and vice versa. I have checked it by performing Augmented Dickey fuller test on the residual series on level value with intercept only of each country. An in this situation (1, -) is called co-integrating vector if the series is stationary. Therefore is a co integrating equation, so, from it we can say that there is long run relationship between and. Granger causality test: Granger causality test is applied if the relationship is lagged between the two variables to determine the direction of relation in statistical term. It gives information about the short term relationship between the variables. In terms of conceptual definition causality is consist of different ideas, this concept produce a relation between caused and results were agreed upon. Aristo defines that there exist a link between causes and results and without causes these results are impossible. And this is strong relationship. Some economists believe that the idea of causality is the mix of both theoretical and explanation and statistical concept. The frontline operational definition of causality is given by some economist, but Granger is the one who provided the information to understand it correctly and completely. Granger causality approach (1969), lets think the variable y is Economic Growth (GDP) and x is Stock price index, if it is possible to predict the past values of y and x than from the lagged values of y alone. X is said to be granger caused by and y is helping in predicting it. in case of a simple bivariate model, causality can be tested between stock market growth and economic growth. Granger causality run on the basis of the following bivariate regressions of the form: (1) (2) Where GDP denotes economic growth and SP denotes the stock price index and they explain the changes in growth. Variables are expressed in logarithm form. The distribution of and are uncorrelated by assumption. From the equation one it can be said that current GDP is related to lagged values of itself and as well as that of SP. And equation 2 postulates same kind of behaviour for SP. Both the equations can be obtained by ordinary least squares (OLS). The f statistics are the Wald statistics for the joint hypothesis: and F test is carried out for the null hypothesis of no Granger causality. The formula of f statistic is Lagged term is defined here by m; number of parameter is defined as k. Test result for Unit Root: Augmented Dickey Fuller Model (ADF) is used to test the stationary of each variable. Null and alternative hypothesis describes about the investigation of unit root. If the null is accepted and alternative is rejected then the variable non stationary behaviour and vice versa is stationary. Variables level/1st Difference Augmented Dickey Fuller Statistic(ADF) test Japan t statistic value With Trend t statistic value With trend and Intercept 1% 5% 10% 1% 5% 10% GDP Level -2.653258 -3.522887     -2.901779 -2.588280   -2.693600   -4.088713   -3.472558 -3.163450 1st Difference -9.053185 -3.524233   -2.902358 -2.588587 -9.003482   -4.090602   -3.473447 -3.163967 Share Price Level   -2.116137 -3.522887     -2.901779 -2.588280   -2.203273   -4.088713   -3.472558 -3.163450 1st Difference   -6.899295 -3.524233   -2.902358 -2.588587   -6.844396   -4.090602   -3.473447 -3.163967 Table 01: Unit root test for stationary Japan If we have a look on the unit root test for the variables GDP and Share price to find out the stationary behaviour the Augmented Dickey Fuller Test with intercept and with intercept and trend in level and first difference. The t statistic value with trend is -2.653258 which is higher than the critical values in 1%, 5% and 10% critical value. The same applies with intercept and trend as the t statistic value -2.693600 is higher than the critical value in all the level of critical value. So from the nature of stationary behaviour we can say in level GDP shows nonstationary behaviour. And the first difference LnGDP is integrated with order one. In case of LnSP the results with intercept and with intercept trend in level are -2.116137 and -2.203273 which is higher than the critical values shows non stationary behaviour as they are higher than the critical value. The unit root test for the variables at first difference shows stationary as the t statistic value is than the critical value i n all level and they are integrated in order one. Variables level/1st Difference Augmented Dickey Fuller Statistic(ADF) test Malaysia t statistic value With Trend t statistic value With trend and Intercept 1% 5% 10% 1% 5% 10% GDP Level -1.195020 -3.522887     -2.901779 -2.588280 -1.933335   -4.088713   -3.472558 -3.163450 1st Difference -5.951843 -3.524233   -2.902358 -2.588587 -5.923595   -4.090602   -3.473447 -3.163967 Share Price Level   -1.900406 -3.522887     -2.901779 -2.588280   -1.891183   -4.088713   -3.472558 -3.163450 1st Difference   -7.842122 -3.524233   -2.902358 -2.588587   -7.779757   -4.090602   -3.473447 -3.163967 The unit root test result for LMGDP and LMSP values presented in natural logarithm. And the level values with intercept and with intercept and trend for LMGDP is -1.195020 and -1.93335 respectively. The values are higher than the critical value means the series has non stationary behaviour. On the other hand the 1st difference values with intercept and with intercept and trend are -5.951843 and -5.923595 respectively. The 1st difference values are integrated with order one. And in the same way I did the ADF test to check for Stationary behaviour of LMSP in level and first difference with intercept and trend. The values in level are -1.900406 and -1.891183 with intercept and trend us higher than the critical value and the series is not integrated with order one. The first difference t statistic values are -7.842122 and -7.779757 with intercept and with intercept and trend respectively are less than the critical value in both the case implies that the series is integrated with order on e. Variables level/1st Difference Augmented Dickey Fuller Statistic(ADF) test UK t statistic value With Trend t statistic value With trend and Intercept 1% 5% 10% 1% 5% 10% GDP Level -0.690866 -3.522887     -2.901779 -2.588280 -2.377333   -4.088713   -3.472558 -3.163450 1st Difference -7.474388 -3.524233   -2.902358 -2.588587 -7.439027   -4.090602   -3.473447 -3.163967 Share Price Level -1.711599 -3.522887     -2.901779 -2.588280 -1.261546   -4.088713   -3.472558 -3.163450 1st Difference -7.254574 -3.524233   -2.902358 -2.588587 -7.391821   -4.090602   -3.473447 -3.163967 The results from Augmented Dickey Fuller test (ADF) for UK GDP in level with intercept and with intercept and trend is –0.690866 and -2.377333 respectively. Both the values in level are higher than the critical value and are integrated in order 0 shows non stationary behaviour. The t statistic values in 1st difference with intercept and with intercept and trend are -7.474388 and -7.439207 respectively. Which suggest that the critical values are less than the critical values in 1%, 5% and 10% level. So from the above hypothesis it can be said that it series is integrated with order one. When I performed the unit root test using the same method the series in level with intercept and with intercept and trend the values in are -1.711599 and -1.261546 respectively. The values are higher than the critical values implies that they are not integrated in order one shows non stationary behaviour. However, the 1st difference value of log natural share price is -7.254573 and -7.391821 wit h intercept and with intercept and trend respectively. So from the result we can say that the series is integrated in order one in both the cases with intercept and with intercept and trend. So the series in first difference is stationary. Variables level/1st D Stock Market Performance and Economic Relationship Stock Market Performance and Economic Relationship Abstract: Whether national economy is affecting the stock market or other way round? A lot of studies have done on the past what are relationship of these variables. In my work I have used cointegration and Granger Causality method to find out the relationship between the stock index price and Economic growth indicator GDP. Introduction The debate of whether stock market is associated with economic growth or the stock market can be served as the economic indicator to predict future. According to many economists stock market can be a reason for the future recession if there is a huge decrease in the stock price or vice versa. However, there are evidence of controversial issue about the ability of prediction from the stock market is not reliable if there is a situation like 1987 stock market crashed followed by the economic recession and 1997 financial crises. (Stock market and economic growth in Malaysia: causality test). The aim of the study is to find the relation between the stock market performance and the real economic activity in case of four countries The UK, The USA, Malaysia and Japan. With my limited knowledge I have tried to find out the role of financial development in stimulating economic growth. A lot of economists have different view about stock market development and the economic growth. If we focus on some related literature published on this topic one question arises: Is economic development is affected by stock market development? Even though there are lots of debate on some are saying that stock market can help the economy but the effect of stock market in the economy especially in the economy is very little. Ross Levine suggested in his paper published in 1998 that recent evidence suggested stock market can really give a boom to economic growth. (REFERENCE) It is not really possible to measure the growth by simply looking at the ups and down in the stock market indicator and by looking at the rates of growth in GDP. A lot of things can cause in the growth of stock market like changes in the banking system, foreign participation in the in the financial market may participate strongly. Apparently it seems that these developments can cause development of stock market followed by the good economic growth. But to check the accuracy one required to follow an appropriate method which would meaningfully measure whether stock price is really effecting the economic growth or not? In my work I have tried to find out the co integrating relationship between Stock price and GDP and tried to check if there is a long run and short run relationship between the stock price and GDP. The method used for the studies is Engle Granger co integration method. To do this I have used ADF (Augmented Dickey Fuller Test) to check for the stationary behaviour of the variables and then I have performed the Engle Granger Engle Granger co integration method followed by residual based error correction model. To check for the short run relationship I have used 2nd stage Engle Granger co integration method. To check the causal effect of the four countries stock market and economic growth I used Granger Causality Method. In this paper I have reviewed some studies of scholars which I have discussed on the literature review part. This paper contains five parts Part two is about the literature based on the past wok of scholars. Part Three discussed about the Data. Part four is about the methodology, Results are discussed on part five and part six is all about the summary and conclusion of the whole study. In my work I have founded there is no long run relationship between stock market and economic growth in all four countries. In addition there is no causal relation between stock index yield and the national economy growth rate. The empirical results of the thesis concludes that the possibility of seemingly abnormal relationship between the stock index and national economy of these for countries. Literature Review: Stock market contributes to economic growth in different ways either directly or indirectly. The functions of stock market are savings mobilization, Liquidity creation, and Risk diversification, keep control on disintermediation, information gaining and enhanced incentive for corporate control. The relationship between stock market and economic growth has become an issue of extensive analysis. There is always a question whether the stock market directly influence economic growth. A lot of research and results shows that there is a strong relationship between stock market and economic growth. Evidence on whether financial development causes growth help to reconcile these views. If we go back to the study of Schumpeter (1912) his studies emphasizes the positive influence on the development of a countrys financial sector on the level and the potential risk of losses caused by the adverse selection and moral hazard or transaction costs are argued by him how necessary the rate of growth argues that financial sectors provides of reallocating capital to minimize the potential losses. Empirical evidence from king and Levine (1983) show that the level of financial intermediation is good predictor of long run rates of growth, capital accumulation and productivity. Enhanced liquidity of financial market leads to financial development and investors can easily diversify their risk by creating their portfolio in different investments with higher investment. Another study from Levine and Zervos (1996) using the data of 24 countries found that a strong positive correlation between stock market development and economic growth. Their expanded study on 49 countries from 1976-1993, they used Stock Market liquidity, Economic growth rate, Capital Accumulating rate and output Growth Rate. They found that all the variables are positively correlated with each other. Demiurgic and Maksimovic (1996) have found positive causal effects of financial development on economic growth in line with the ‘supply leading hypothesis. According to his studies countries with better financial system has a smooth functioning stock market tend to grow much faster as they have access to much needed funds for financially constrained economic enterprises by the large efficient banks. Related research was done for the past three decades focusing on the role of financial development in stimulating economic growth they never considered about the stock market. An empirical study by Ming Men and Rui on Stock market index and economic growth in China suggest that possible reason of apparent abnormal relationship between the stock Index and national economy in china. Apparent abnormal relationship may be because of the following reason inconsistency of Chinese GDP with the structure of its stock market, role played by private sector in growth of GDP and disequilibrium of finance structure etc. The study was done using the cointegration method and Granger causality test, the overall finding of the study is Chinese finance market is not playing an important role in economic development. (Men M 2006 China paper). An article by Indrani Chakraborti based on the case of India presented in a seminar in kolkata in October, 2006 provides some information about the existence of long run stable relationship between stosk market capitalization, bank credit and growth rate of real GDP. She used the concept of the granger causality after using both the Engle-Granger and Johansen technique. In her study she found GDP is co-integrated with financial depth, Volatility in the stock market and GDP growth is co integrated with all the findings the paper explain that the in an overall sense, economic growth is the reson for financial development in India.(Chakraboty Indrani). Few writers from Malaysia found that stock market does help to predict future economy. Stock market is associated with economic growth play as a source for new private capital. Causal relationship between the stock market and economic growth which was done by using the formal test for causality by C.J. Granger and yearly Malaysia data for the period 1977-2006. The result from the study explain that future prediction is possible by stock market. A study focused on the relationship between stock market performance and real economic activity in Turkey. The study shows existence of a long run relationship between real economic activity and stock prices†¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦ Result from the study pointed out that economic activity increases after a shock in stock prices and then declines in Turkish market from the second quarter and a unitary (Turkish paper) An international time series analysis from 1980-1990 by By RAGHURAM G. RAJAN AND LUIGI ZINGALES shows some evidence of the relation between stock market and economic growth. This paper describes whether economic growth is facilitated by financial development. He found that financial development has strong effect on economic growth. (Rajan and Zingales, 1998) The study of Ross LEVINE AND SARA ZERVOS on finding out the long run relationship between stock market and bank suggest a positive effect both the variables has positive effect on economic growth. International integration and volatility is not properly effected by capital stock market. And private save saving rates are not at all affected by these financial indicators. The study was done on 47 countries data using cross sectional analysis. In theory the conventional literature on growth was not sufficient enough to look for the connection between financial development and economic growth and the reason is they were focused on the steady state level of capital stock per workerof productivity. And they were not really concentrated on the rate of growth. Actually the main concern was legitimated to exogenous technical progress. (Levine and Zervos 1998) Belgium Stock market study with economic development shows the positive long run relationship between both the variables. In case of Belgium the evidences are quiet strong that Economic growth is caused by the development of the stock market. It is more focused between the period 1873 and 1935; basically this period is considered as the period of rapid industrialization in Belgium. The importance of the stock market in Belgium is more pronounced after liberalization of the stock market in 1867-1873. The time varying nature of the link between stock market development and economic growth is explained by the institutional change in the stock exchange. They also tried to find out the relationship to the universal banking system. Before 1873 the economic growth was based on the banking system and after 1873 stock market took the place. (Stock Market Development and economic growth in Belgium, Stijin Van Nieuwerburg, Ludo Cuyvers, Frans Buelens July 5, 2005) Senior economist of the World Banks Policy research department Ross Levine has discussed about Stock market in his paper Stock Markets: A Spur to economic growth on the impact of development. Less risky investments are possible in liquid equity market and it attracts the savers to acquire an asset, equity. As, they can sell it quickly when they need access to their savings, and if they want to alter their portfolio. Though many long term investment is required for the profitable investment. But reluctance of the investors towards long term investment as they dont have the access to their savings easily. Permanent access to capital is raised by the companies through equity issues as they are facilitating longer term, more profitable investments and prospect of long term economic growth is enhanced as liquid market improves the allocation of capital. The empirical evidence from the study strongly suggests that greater stock markets create more liquidity or at least continue economic gr owth. (Levine. R A spur to economic Growth) A lot of research has established that future economic growth is influenced by countrys financial growth, stock market index returns are another factor of economic growth. The researcher focused to extend their study; they tie together these two strings and started analyzing the relationship between banking industry, stock returns and future economic growth. Research was done on 18 developed and 18 emerging markets and the results are positive and noteworthy relationship between future GDP and stock returns. Few important features can also be predicted such as bank-accounting-disclosure standards, banking crises, insider trading law enforcement and government ownership of banks. (Bank stock returns and economic growth q Rebel A. Cole a, Fariborz Moshirian b,*, Qiongbing Wu c a Department of Finance, DePaul University, Chicago, IL 60604, USA b School of Banking and Finance, The University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia c Newcastle raduate School of Business, The University of Newcastle, Newcastle, NSW 2300, Australia Received 29 September 2006; accepted 26 July 2007Available online 21 September 2007) Another paper was focused on the linkages between financial development and economic growth using TYDL model for the empirical exercises by Purna Chandra Padhan suggests that both stock price and economic activity are integrated of order one and Johansen-Juselias Coin-integration tests for this study found one co integrating vector exists. It is proved by the spurious relation rule in this study the existence of at least one direction of causality. He described that bi-directional causality between stock price and economic growth meaning that economic activity can be enhanced by well developed stock exchange and vice-versa. ( Title:  The nexus between stock market and economic activity: an empirical analysis for India Author(s): Purna Chandra Padhan Journal: International Journal of Social Economics Year: 2007 Volume: 34 Issue: 10  Page: 741 – 753 DOI: 10.1108/03068290710816874 Publisher: Emerald Group Publishing Limited) Chee Keong Choong (Universiti Tunku Abdul Rahman Malaysia) Zulkornain Yusop (Universiti Putra Malaysia) Siong Hook Law (Universiti Putra Malaysia) Venus Liew Khim Sen (Universiti Putra Malaysia) Date of creation: 23 Jul 2003 Tried to find out the importance of the causal relationship of Financial development and economic growth. The findings of their study usin autoregressive Distributed lag (ARDL) describes about the positive long run impact on economic growth Granger causality also suggest same results. A study by Randall Filler(2000) using 70 countries data over the period 1985-1997 proves that there is a very little relationship between economic growth and stock market especially in developing countries and currency appreciation has occurred. From the result of the study we can see that an important role may be played by the stock market in an economy, and these are not essential for economic growth. However, another study on Iran by N. Shahnoushi, A.G Daneshvar, E Shori and M. Motalebi 2008 Financial development is not considered as an effective factor to the economic growth. The study was focused on the causal relationship between the financial development and economic growth. Time series data used for the study from the period 1961-2004. Granger causality shows there is no co integrating relationship between financial development and economic growth in Iran only the economical growth leads to financial development. Establishing link between savings and investment is very much important and financial market provides that. Transient or lasting growth is the ultimate affect of the financial market. Economic growth can be influenced by financial market by improving the productivity of the capital, Investment to firms can be channelled and greater capital accumulation by increasing savings. To ensure the stability of the financial market potential regulation is important due to asymmetric information, especially at the time of financial liberalization. (Economic Development and Financial Market Tosson Nabil Deabes Moderm Academy for technology aand computer sciences; MAM November 2004 Economic Development Financial Market Working Paper No. 2 ) Data: The empirical analysis was carried out using the quarterly data for The UK, The USA, Japan and Malaysia. The data were collected from the DataStream for the period 1993I to 2008III. Economic growth is measured as the growth rate of gross domestic product (GDP) of each country with the help of stock prices SP. For the software processing I used Eviews 6.0 for the planned regression in order to get the results. The empirical analysis is done from the quarterly data from the stock market indices and the and the GDP between the first quarter of 1993 and the fourth quarter of 2008. All the data has been extracted from the data stream and expressed in US$. The data for Japan share price is from Tokyo Stock Exchange. Malaysias Share price is form Kuala Lumpur Composite Index, UKs is from UK FT all share price index and USA share price is taken from the DOW Jones industrial share price index. The nature of the Data is series used for the time series regression. List of Variables: UGDP UK GDP USP UK Share price LUGDP Log of UK GDP LUSP Log of UK Share price USGDP USA GDP USSP USA (DOW Jones) Share price LUSGDP Log of USA GDP LUSSP Log of USA Share price MGDP Malaysia GDP MSP Malaysia Share price LMGDP Log of Malaysia GDP LMSP Log of Malaysia Share price JGDP Japan GDP JSP Japan Share Price LJGDP Log of Japan GDP LJSP Log of Japan Share price Methodology: Cointegration long term common stochastic trend between non stationary time series. If non-stationary series x and yare both integrated of same order and there is a linear combination of them that is stationary, they are called co integrated series. A common stochastic trend is shared in Cointegration. It follows that these two series will not drift apart too much, meaning that even they may deviate from each other in the short-term, they will revert to the long-run equilibrium. This fact makes cointegration a very powerful approach for the long-term analyses. Meanwhile, cointegration does not imply high correlation; two series can be co integrated and yet have very low correlations. Cointegration tests allow us to determine whether financial variables of different national markets move together over the long run, while providing for the possibility of short-run divergence. The first step in the analysis is to test each index series for the presence of unit roots, which shows whether the series are nonstationary. All the series must be nonstationarity and integrated of the same order. To do this, we apply both the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test. Once the stationarity requirements are met, we proceed Granger bivariate cointegration (1987) procedure. 30 International Research Journal of Finance and Economics Issue 24 (2009) Series Stationary Test: In this study I have used Augmented Dickey Fuller Test (ADF) to test the stationary of variables. The unit root test is usually used to confirm stationary of a series. The ADF is test for unit root where I have checked the Unit root and strong negative numbers of unit root is being rejected by the null hypothesis (level of significance). In this study I have used Augmented Dickey Fuller Test (ADF) to check whether the series is stationary or not. ADF test is based on the estimate of the following regression: is in this case variable of interest = , is the differencing operator, t is the time trend and is the random component of zero mean and constant variance. The parameters to be estimated are { } Null and alternative hypothesis of unit root test are: , () () Here with the test we can find the estimates of are equal to zero or not. Y is said to be stationary if the cumulative distribution of the ADF statistics by showing that if the calculated ratio of the coefficient is less than the critical value according to Fuller (1976). If we accept the Ho the sequence is predicted to be having unit root and if Ho is rejected then we can say that the series doesnt have unit root. This proves that the series is stationary. The co–integration test can only be performed if both the sequences are all integrated of order I (1). Cointegration Test: Engle and Granger (1987) first established the cointegration method. It is a method of measuring long term diversification based on data. Linear combination of two non stationary series shows that they are integrated in order one I(1) that is stationary. And this is a co integrated series. Cointegration Long term common random trend between non stationary time series. The linear combination of both the non stationary series can be stationary if both the variables are integrated in same order. Cointegration is a very powerful approach in the long term analysis because a common stochastic trend is shared in cointegration that mean two series will not drift separately too much. They might deviate from each other but in the long run but eventually the will revert back in the long run. If there is very low correlation between the series still the series can be co-integrated as high correlation is not implied in cointegration. The reason for choosing the method as it will allow us to check the move between the variable in the long run even there might be a divergence in the short run. The first step in the analysis is check each index series whether the series for the presence of unit root which shows whether the series is non stationary. The method that I followed to do this is Augmented Dickey Fuller Test (ADF). I proceed the Granger cointegration technique 1987 when the stationary requirements are met. According to Engle and Granger (1987) to check for cointegration if both the variables and are integrated with order one the proposed method for cointegration residual-based test for cointegration (Engle-Granger method). So from the above method we can find the equation By regressing with And after that and is denoted as the estimated regression coefficient vectors. After that I saved the residual from the above equation. Then, = – is representing the estimated residual vector. If the residual is integrated with order zero that means the series for the residual is stationary, and and are then co integrated and vice versa. I have checked it by performing Augmented Dickey fuller test on the residual series on level value with intercept only of each country. An in this situation (1, -) is called co-integrating vector if the series is stationary. Therefore is a co integrating equation, so, from it we can say that there is long run relationship between and. Granger causality test: Granger causality test is applied if the relationship is lagged between the two variables to determine the direction of relation in statistical term. It gives information about the short term relationship between the variables. In terms of conceptual definition causality is consist of different ideas, this concept produce a relation between caused and results were agreed upon. Aristo defines that there exist a link between causes and results and without causes these results are impossible. And this is strong relationship. Some economists believe that the idea of causality is the mix of both theoretical and explanation and statistical concept. The frontline operational definition of causality is given by some economist, but Granger is the one who provided the information to understand it correctly and completely. Granger causality approach (1969), lets think the variable y is Economic Growth (GDP) and x is Stock price index, if it is possible to predict the past values of y and x than from the lagged values of y alone. X is said to be granger caused by and y is helping in predicting it. in case of a simple bivariate model, causality can be tested between stock market growth and economic growth. Granger causality run on the basis of the following bivariate regressions of the form: (1) (2) Where GDP denotes economic growth and SP denotes the stock price index and they explain the changes in growth. Variables are expressed in logarithm form. The distribution of and are uncorrelated by assumption. From the equation one it can be said that current GDP is related to lagged values of itself and as well as that of SP. And equation 2 postulates same kind of behaviour for SP. Both the equations can be obtained by ordinary least squares (OLS). The f statistics are the Wald statistics for the joint hypothesis: and F test is carried out for the null hypothesis of no Granger causality. The formula of f statistic is Lagged term is defined here by m; number of parameter is defined as k. Test result for Unit Root: Augmented Dickey Fuller Model (ADF) is used to test the stationary of each variable. Null and alternative hypothesis describes about the investigation of unit root. If the null is accepted and alternative is rejected then the variable non stationary behaviour and vice versa is stationary. Variables level/1st Difference Augmented Dickey Fuller Statistic(ADF) test Japan t statistic value With Trend t statistic value With trend and Intercept 1% 5% 10% 1% 5% 10% GDP Level -2.653258 -3.522887     -2.901779 -2.588280   -2.693600   -4.088713   -3.472558 -3.163450 1st Difference -9.053185 -3.524233   -2.902358 -2.588587 -9.003482   -4.090602   -3.473447 -3.163967 Share Price Level   -2.116137 -3.522887     -2.901779 -2.588280   -2.203273   -4.088713   -3.472558 -3.163450 1st Difference   -6.899295 -3.524233   -2.902358 -2.588587   -6.844396   -4.090602   -3.473447 -3.163967 Table 01: Unit root test for stationary Japan If we have a look on the unit root test for the variables GDP and Share price to find out the stationary behaviour the Augmented Dickey Fuller Test with intercept and with intercept and trend in level and first difference. The t statistic value with trend is -2.653258 which is higher than the critical values in 1%, 5% and 10% critical value. The same applies with intercept and trend as the t statistic value -2.693600 is higher than the critical value in all the level of critical value. So from the nature of stationary behaviour we can say in level GDP shows nonstationary behaviour. And the first difference LnGDP is integrated with order one. In case of LnSP the results with intercept and with intercept trend in level are -2.116137 and -2.203273 which is higher than the critical values shows non stationary behaviour as they are higher than the critical value. The unit root test for the variables at first difference shows stationary as the t statistic value is than the critical value i n all level and they are integrated in order one. Variables level/1st Difference Augmented Dickey Fuller Statistic(ADF) test Malaysia t statistic value With Trend t statistic value With trend and Intercept 1% 5% 10% 1% 5% 10% GDP Level -1.195020 -3.522887     -2.901779 -2.588280 -1.933335   -4.088713   -3.472558 -3.163450 1st Difference -5.951843 -3.524233   -2.902358 -2.588587 -5.923595   -4.090602   -3.473447 -3.163967 Share Price Level   -1.900406 -3.522887     -2.901779 -2.588280   -1.891183   -4.088713   -3.472558 -3.163450 1st Difference   -7.842122 -3.524233   -2.902358 -2.588587   -7.779757   -4.090602   -3.473447 -3.163967 The unit root test result for LMGDP and LMSP values presented in natural logarithm. And the level values with intercept and with intercept and trend for LMGDP is -1.195020 and -1.93335 respectively. The values are higher than the critical value means the series has non stationary behaviour. On the other hand the 1st difference values with intercept and with intercept and trend are -5.951843 and -5.923595 respectively. The 1st difference values are integrated with order one. And in the same way I did the ADF test to check for Stationary behaviour of LMSP in level and first difference with intercept and trend. The values in level are -1.900406 and -1.891183 with intercept and trend us higher than the critical value and the series is not integrated with order one. The first difference t statistic values are -7.842122 and -7.779757 with intercept and with intercept and trend respectively are less than the critical value in both the case implies that the series is integrated with order on e. Variables level/1st Difference Augmented Dickey Fuller Statistic(ADF) test UK t statistic value With Trend t statistic value With trend and Intercept 1% 5% 10% 1% 5% 10% GDP Level -0.690866 -3.522887     -2.901779 -2.588280 -2.377333   -4.088713   -3.472558 -3.163450 1st Difference -7.474388 -3.524233   -2.902358 -2.588587 -7.439027   -4.090602   -3.473447 -3.163967 Share Price Level -1.711599 -3.522887     -2.901779 -2.588280 -1.261546   -4.088713   -3.472558 -3.163450 1st Difference -7.254574 -3.524233   -2.902358 -2.588587 -7.391821   -4.090602   -3.473447 -3.163967 The results from Augmented Dickey Fuller test (ADF) for UK GDP in level with intercept and with intercept and trend is –0.690866 and -2.377333 respectively. Both the values in level are higher than the critical value and are integrated in order 0 shows non stationary behaviour. The t statistic values in 1st difference with intercept and with intercept and trend are -7.474388 and -7.439207 respectively. Which suggest that the critical values are less than the critical values in 1%, 5% and 10% level. So from the above hypothesis it can be said that it series is integrated with order one. When I performed the unit root test using the same method the series in level with intercept and with intercept and trend the values in are -1.711599 and -1.261546 respectively. The values are higher than the critical values implies that they are not integrated in order one shows non stationary behaviour. However, the 1st difference value of log natural share price is -7.254573 and -7.391821 wit h intercept and with intercept and trend respectively. So from the result we can say that the series is integrated in order one in both the cases with intercept and with intercept and trend. So the series in first difference is stationary. Variables level/1st D

Mythology: Important Part Of History :: essays research papers

Mythology: Important Part of History Bullfinch once said "Mythology is the handmaid of literature...". That means that mythology is necessarily subservient or subordinate to literature. I personally think that is not true. Let me introduce myself. My name is Aphrodite, goddess of beauty and sexual desire. Mythology is important and interesting . In fact, I think I may be the most interesting of all the gods. Well, at least the most beautiful. In this auto biographical paper I will reveal to you who I am, how I relate to mythology, and a famous story about myself. Let me start with my birth. Many think I was born out of murder. They say that when Cronos butchered his father he flung the dismembered body into the sea, where it floated spouting blood and foam. From the foam rose me, a tall beautiful maiden with long blond hair the color of daffodils. Other legends say that I am the daughter of Cronos and Rheia or Jupiter and Dionne. I am married to Hephaestus, god of fire and metal work. Shortly after birth my poor husband was cast out of Olympus because of his deformities. My son is the famous arrow shooting Cupid. We are almost always together and Cupid is always shooting darts of desire in to the bosoms of Gods and men. I hate to admit it but in a way I am responsible for the Trojan War. One day Discord threw an apple on to Olympus to be given to the most beautiful goddess. Hera, Athene, and I all tried to claim the title. Each of us tried to persaude the judge, Paris, in our favor. Hera told him he would be a powerful ruler, Athene promised him that he would receive great military fame, and I guaranteed him Helen of Troy's hand in marriage. He then declared me the fairest of all, and abducted Helen of Troy thus beginning the Trojan War. I have also inspired many paintings, sculptures, and poetry. The most famous painting featuring me is the Birth of Venus. It is a very famous painting from the Renaissance. As you can see I am one of the most important goddess and have influenced mythology immensely. I relate to mythology by being the goddess of love and beauty. My Roman name is Venus. My work is my pleasure, my profession, and my hobby. I think about nothing but love and nobody expects any more from me. My job is to make other gods and goddess fall in love with each other. I am ashamed to say that I

girl interrupted review Essay -- essays research papers

One popular cultural myth about the mentally ill is the archetype of the "Sexy Crazy Girl", which we've seen in movies, comic books, and music. Losing your grip with reality is not a glamorous subject, but that's not what you get from Girl, Interrupted. It is apparent that all the girls in the movie had some type of dysfunctional personality, and bad things happen to some of them, but it just did not seem realistic. First off, most of the patients prtrayed were young, which made the care facility look like a youth home rather than a mental institution. but only the main (well known) stars, (Jolie and Ryder) were focal piont. I'll also note that about half the young girls in the movie, Ryder and Jolie included, simply don't look like girls in the 1960's. Maybe that's a difficult statement to explain, but it has to do with that certain look each time and generation seems to have; and Ryder and Jolie don't look like girls of the 1960's. Of course, one could easily say that th eir displacement is part of their condition... but I didn't buy it. To finish this paragraph about this film's inconsistent appearances, I'll mention how convenient it seems that with the exception of one extra, nearly the entire cast of patients in this ward are under the age of 25 or so. Mental illness strikes women of all ages, so it was a bit perplexing to see it portrayed as a thing of youth. This also feeds into my prior statement about making "going crazy" look cool... this movie ...

Injury can result from violence Essay -- Social Issues, Domestic Viole

Injury can result form violence Injury Can Result from Violence Injury can result from many different incidents. One specifically important incident resulting in injury is domestic violence. It is approximated statistically that 1.8 million to 3-4 million domestic violence cases occur each year, unfortunately, the number of cases that occur cannot be more accurate due to domestic violence usually occurring in the relative privacy of one’s home. (Kelly, 2003) As disturbing as these numbers may be, we need to acknowledge that domestic violence is not a new problem arising in American homes but what is new is that we are now more aware of how serious the issue of domestic violence is in today’s society. Today, domestic violence, in its broadest definition is being defined as verbal, emotional, threatening, or physical abuse among current or former intimate partners and includes any persons related by blood. (Robert, 2002) They may be living currently within the same household or have been in the past for it to be considered do mestic. Domestic violence has no barriers. It affects any race, religion, culture, or socioeconomic status. In today’s world every nurse knowingly or not is most likely to encounter a situation involving domestic violence. (Nucero & O’Connor, 2002) Therefore, it is important that within this discussion that the following issues is to be identified: the seriousness of domestic violence and what factors contribute to domestic violence, what role the legal system must take on when domestic violence occurs, and lastly what a nurse and the medical world can do in identifying and assessing domestic violence. Domestic violence is a serious problem affecting many people each and every ye... ...ic violence, as we can see from the previous read information, results in injury. It is a very serious issue for the people within a violent home setting and with today’s legal system domestic violence cases are being taken extremely serious. It is important that we as nurses, if we feel someone is in a violent home setting, to identify these patients and assess as needed. By nurses identifying and assessing victims of violent acts we can help these people and contribute to decreasing the number of violent acts that occur. If a nurse or anyone knows or suspects that someone is being abused, we need to let that victim know there are alternative solutions, choices they can make, and that there is hope to solve the problem at hand. We should also let this victim know that without help, this problem may only get worse and could progress in frequency and severity.

Malaysia †Quarterly Balance of Payment in 2010-2012 Essay

This report is focused on the analysis of Malaysia’s balance of payment for last six quarters (from Q3/2011 to Q3/2012). It will show the impact of balance of payment to economy or the financial crisis. The last part of this report will involve the summary and the forecast the Malaysia’s balance of payment in the future. Third quarter of 2011 Current account: the current account balance recorded a surplus of RM26.6 billion, an increase of RM3.2 billion (13.8 percent). This higher surplus was attributed to: the lower net payments on income of RM3.8 billion higher surplus on goods of RM38.2 billion. Goods Account: the surplus on goods increased to RM38.2 billion by Exports FOB expanded by RM5.0 billion to record RM176.7 billion. The demands for exports FOB was mainly contributed by electrical & electronic products, palm oil & palm oil based products and liquefied natural gas (LNG). Moreover, Imports FOB posted RM138.5 billion, an increase of RM3.1 billion (2.3 percent). This was attributed to higher value of imports Services Account: Exports of services registered RM26.6 billion. Meanwhile, imports of services posted RM29.0 billion. On net basis, the services account experienced higher deficit of RM2.4 billion from RM0.7 billion previously. This was mainly due to: 1. lower net receipts in travel account of RM5.5 billion from RM6.7 billion; and 2. higher net payments in transportation account of RM6.7 billion from RM6.3 billion. Income Account: income receipts recorded RM13.9 billion from RM11.2 billion previously, of which investment income recorded RM13.0 billion and compensation of employees RM0.9 billion. On the payments side, income account registered RM17.8 billion from RM18.0 billion, of which investment income recorded RM16.3 billion and compensation of employees RM1.4 billion. So there was more investment in Malaysia. Current Transfers: Net payments on current transfers remained unchanged. Capital account: In the current quarter of 2011, the capital account recorded a higher net outflow of RM58.0 million from that of RM26.0 million posted last quarter. Year-on-year, net outflow of capital account narrowed from RM63.0 million. Cumulatively, the capital account recorded lower net outflow of RM97.0 million from RM166.0 million in the first nine months of 2010. Financial account: The financial account reverted to net outflow of RM23.3 billion from net inflow of RM44.5 billion previously. This was mainly due to a swing in portfolio investment from net inflow of RM48.1 billion to net outflow of RM23.4 billion. Direct Investment: direct investment posted net outflow of RM7.7 billion, consisting of DIA: higher net outflow of RM12.9 billion. The major sectors attributed to DIA were financial & insurance, oil & gas, and construction. FDI: lower net inflow of RM5.2 billion. FDI inflows were primarily channeled into manufacturing, oil & gas, and wholesale & retail trade sectors. Portfolio Investment: Portfolio investment reverted to net outflow of RM23.4 billion from net inflow of RM48.1 billion previously. Year-on-year, portfolio investment also showed a turnaround from net inflow of RM18.3 billion a year ago. Reserve assets: The international reserves Bank Negara Malaysia increased by RM10.9 billion in the current quarter as compared to an increa se of RM61.7 billion in Q2 2011. Fourth quarter of 2011 Current account: the current account recorded a surplus of RM22.0 billion, a decrease of RM4.6 billion. The lower surplus was reflected in: higher net payments on income of RM5.6 billion, higher net payments on services of RM4.0 billion, and lower surplus on goods of RM36.9 billion. Goods Account: goods registered a lower surplus amounting to RM36.9 billion from RM38.2 billion a quarter ago. This was attributed to the higher imports FOB. The demand for exports FOB was mainly associated to electrical & electronic products, palm oil & palm oil based products and liquefied natural gas (LNG). In the meantime, there was the higher imports FOB Services Account: exports of services registered higher net receipts of RM28.1 billion, an increase of RM1.5 billion. Meanwhile, imports of services increased by RM3.0 billion (10.3 per cent) to record RM32.0 billion from RM29.0 billion in Q3 2011. In terms of net, the net payments on services account broadened to RM4.0 billion from RM2.4 billion pre viously. This was mainly due to higher net payments on other services amounting to RM3.2 billion as compared to RM1.1 billion in July – September 2011. Income Account: In the current quarter, income receipts recorded RM14.7 billion from RM13.9 billion in the preceding quarter. The RM0.8 billion increase was reflected in higher receipts on investment income of RM13.8 billion, while compensation of employees consistently maintained receipts of RM0.9 billion. On net basis, the outlay on income account widened to RM5.6 billion from RM3.8 billion. This was contributed by higher net outlay on both investment income of RM4.8 billion and compensation of employees of RM0.8 billion. Current Transfers: Net payments on current transfers continued to record RM5.3 billion for three consecutive quarters. Current transfers saw an increase in both receipts and payments amounting to RM1.5 billion and RM6.8 billion. Capital account: In Q4 2011, capital account posted lower net outflow of RM54.0 million from RM58.0 million in Q3 2011. This was mainly due to lower net payments on capital transfers from RM34.0 million to RM16.0 million. Financial account: In the quarter under review, financial account posted net inflow of RM0.2 billion, a reversal from net outflow of RM23.3 billion. This scenario was supported by the lower outflow in portfolio investment of RM2.7 billion, coupled with higher inflow in other investment of RM11.2 billion. Direct Investment: Direct investment posted a net outflow of RM7.9 billion from RM7.7 billion last quarter, of which: DIA: higher net investment outflow of RM14.3 billion. The major sectors attributed to DIA were oil & gas, financial & insurance, and utilities. FDI: higher net inflow of RM6.5 billion. FDI inflows were primarily channeled into manufacturing, oil & gas, and wholesale & retail trade sectors. Portfolio Investment: Portfolio investment registered lower net outflow of RM2.7 billion from RM23.4 billion attained last quarter. Year-on-year, portfolio investment reverted from net inflow of RM3.5 billion to net outflow of RM2.7 billion. Reserve Assets The international reserves of Bank Negara Malaysia increased by RM6.3 billion in Q4 2011 as compared to an increase of RM10.9 billion in Q3 2011, stood at RM423.4 billion as at end of 2011. First quarter of 2012 Current account: In the period January – March 2012, current account recorded lower surplus of RM18.1 billion from RM22.4 billion in Q4 2011. This was mainly attributed to: Income account: A higher net outflow of RM8.6 billion Goods account: A lower surplus of RM35.8 billion. Goods Account: goods registered lower surplus of RM35.8 billion (-RM1.0 billion or -2.8 per cent) from RM36.8 billion last quarter. This was due to decrease in exports FOB larger than that of imports FOB Services Account: exports of services registered RM27.9 billion from RM29.0 billion during Q4 2011, consisting of the following components: transportation of RM3.3 billion, travel of RM14.7 billion, other services of RM9.9 billion, and government transactions of RM49.0 million. Meanwhile, imports of services decreased. On net basis, services account remained unchanged Income Account: On net basis, the income outlay widened by RM3.3 billion to RM8.6 billion from RM5.3 billion recorded in the preceding quarter, specifically due to higher net outlay on investment income of RM7.8 billion from RM4.5 billion. Current Transfers: current transfers continued to record net payments RM5.3 billion. Both receipts and payments saw an increase amounting to RM1.5 billion and RM6.8 billion. Capital a ccount: capital account posted higher net outflow of RM166.0 million from RM55.0 million in Q4 2011. This was mainly due to higher net payments on capital transfers to RM93.0 million from RM17.0 million. Financial account: financial account recorded a higher net outflow of RM10.3 billion from RM0.2 billion posted in previous quarter. This higher net outflow was mainly attributed to other investment: reverted to net outflow RM26.1 billion from net inflow RM11.0 billion, and direct investment: higher net outflow of RM9.4 billion from RM8.2 billion. Direct Investment: Direct investment registered a net outflow of RM9.4 billion from RM8.2 billion last quarter, of which: DIA: higher net outflow of RM16.9 billion which were wholesale & retail trade, financial & insurance, and health services. FDI: higher net inflow of RM7.5 billion. FDI inflows were primarily channeled into oil & gas, financial & insurance, and manufacturing sectors. Portfolio Investment: The portfolio investment switched to net inflow of RM25.3 billion from net outflow of RM2.7 billion previously. Meanwhile year-on-year, portfolio investment registered higher net inflow by RM16.9 billion to RM25.3 billion. Other Investment: In the current quarter, other investment reverted to a net outflow of RM26.1 billion from a net inflow of RM11.0 billion. This was attributable to a turnaround in the private sector to -RM25.6 billion from a net inflow of RM11.1 billion. Reserve Assets: The international reserves of Bank Negara Malaysia decreased by RM7.2 billion in Q1 2012 as compared to an increase of RM6.2 billion in Q4 2011, stood at RM416.1 billion as at end of March 2012. Second quarter of 2012 Current account: In April – June 2012, current account balance showed a lower surplus of RM9.6 billion, a decrease of RM8.5 billion from RM18.1 billion attained a quarter ago. The lower surplus was reflected in: Goods account: recorded lower surplus by RM6.4 billion to RM29.4 billion from RM35.8 billion; and Income account: the net outlay widened by RM3.1 billion to RM11.7 billion from RM8.6 billion. Goods Account: the current quarter, the goods account registered a lower surplus of RM29.4 billion as compared to RM35.8 billion in the previous quarter. This was due to imports FOB which expanded at a faster pace (7.3 per cent) relative to that of exports FOB (2.1 per cent). Exports FOB increased to RM177.7 billion compared to RM174.0 billion in Q1 2012. This was mainly contributed by higher exports for electrical & electronic products and palm oil & palm oil based products. Imports FOB rose to RM148.2 billion. This was due to higher domestic demands for imports by end-use for three major categories namely intermediate goods, capital goods, and consumption goods. Services Account: In the quarter under review, exports of services registered RM28.9 billion from RM27.9 billion last quarter. Meanwhile, imports of services increased by RM0.7 billion from RM31.7 billion a quarter ago, of which: transportation of RM10.4 billion, travel of RM9.0 billion, other services of RM12.8 billion; and, government transactions of RM194.0 million. On net basis, services account posted lower net payments of RM3.6 billion from RM3.8 billion last quarter. This was led by a lower deficit on other services from RM2.5 billion to RM1.8 billion. On the contrary, transportation posted higher net payments of RM7.1 billion while travel recorded lower net receipts of RM5.4 billion. Income Account: In the current quarter, income receipts registered RM9.0 billion from RM9.6 billion in Q1 2012. On net basis, the income outlay broadened to RM11.7 billion from RM8.6 billion posted in the previous quarter. This was solely due to higher net outlay in investment income amounting to RM11.1 billion. Meanwhile, compensation of employees recorded a lower net outflows of RM0.6 billion. For the first half of 2012, the deficit on income account broadened to RM20.3 billion, affected by higher net payments on investment income Current Transfers: In the quarter under review, the net payments on current transfers narrowed to RM4.6 billion. Both receipts and payments increased to record RM2.3 billion and RM6.9 billion. Capital account: In Q2 2012, the capital account registered lower net outflow of RM67.0 million from RM166.0 million last quarter. This was due to lower net outflow on both capital transfers and non-produced, nonfinancial assets by RM60.0 million and RM40.0 million, respectively. Financial account: In the quarter ended June 2012, the financial account turned around to a net inflow of RM5.4 billion from net outflow of RM10.3 billion previously. This movement was driven by a switch in both other investment and direct investment. On the contrary, portfolio investment saw a reversal to net outflow of RM5.0 billion, from net inflow of RM25.3 billion. Direct Investment: The direct investment switched to a net inflow of RM3.5 billion from a net outflow of RM9.4 billion last quarter, of which: DIA: recorded lower net outflow of RM2.5 billion. These investments were largely directed into oil & gas, real estate, and financial & insurance sectors. FDI: lower net inflow of RM6.1 billion, decreased by RM1.4 billion from RM7.5 billion previously. FDI inflows were primarily channeled into oil & gas, manufacturing, and financial & insurance sectors. Portfolio Investment: Portfolio investment reverted to net outflow of RM5.0 billion from net inflow of RM25.3 billion previously. Meanwhile year-on-year, portfolio investment turned around to net outflow of RM5.0 billion from net inflow of RM48.0 billion in Q2 2011. On the contrary, for the period January – June 2012, portfolio investment registered lower net inflow of RM20.3 billion from RM56.5 billion, a decrease of RM36.1 billion. Reserve Assets The international reserves of Bank Negara Malaysia increased by RM12.7 billion in Q2 2012 as compared to a decrease of RM7.2 billion in Q1 2012, stood at RM428.8 billion as at end of June 2012. Third quarter of 2012 Current account: The current account balance recorded a lower surplus of RM9.5 billion for the period of July – September 2012, as compared to RM9.6 billion in the preceding quarter. This lower surplus was reflected in: Goods account: lower surplus RM25.5 billion Current transfers: the net payments widened to RM4.7 billion Meanwhile, income and services account recorded lower net payments of RM7.9 billion and RM3.4 billion Goods Account: In the quarter under review, the goods account registered a lower surplus of RM25.5 billion as compared to RM29.4 billion in the previous quarter. This was due to decrease in exports FOB by 1.8 per cent relative to increase in imports FOB by 0.5 per cent. Services Account: exports of services remained the same as previous quarter Income Account: the income receipts recorded RM11.4 billion increased by RM2.5 billion from RM9.0 billion in Q2 2012. Compensation of employees remained RM1.0 billion and investment income attained RM10.4 billion. The investment income comprises of: direct investment abroad (DIA): higher receipts of RM3.8 billion, mainly generated from financial & insurance, oil & gas, and information & communication sectors portfolio investment: higher receipts of RM1.3 billion other investment: higher receipts of RM5.4 billion However, income payments (debit) recorded RM19.4 billion decreased by RM1.3 billion from RM20.7 billion in Q2 2012. On net basis, the income account deficit reduced to RM7.9 billion from RM11.7 billion previously. This was primarily due to a lower net payments in investment income amounting to RM7.2 billion, while compensation of employees recorded higher net payments of RM0.7 billion. Current Transfers: In the third quarter 2012, both receipts and payments decreased to record RM1.4 billion and RM6.1 billion. On net basis, this account recorded higher net payments RM4.7 billion. Capital account: In Q3 2012, the net outflow decreased to RM42.0 million from RM67.0 million last quarter. This was due to lower outflow on both capital transfers and nonproduced nonfinancial assets which recorded RM24.0 million and RM18.0 million Financial account: In the current quarter, the financial account reverted to a net outflow of RM8.7 billion from net inflow of RM5.4 billion reported previously. This was due to a swing in both portfolio investment from net outflow of RM5.0 billion to net inflow of RM27.6 billion and other investment to net outflow of RM38.1 billion from net inflow of RM5.9 billion. On the contrary, direct investment recorded lower inflow RM1.9 billion from RM3.5 billion. Direct Investment: Direct investment posted a lower net inflow of RM1.9 billion from RM3.5 billion during previous quarter. Portfolio Investment: Portfolio investment recorded a net inflow of RM27.6 billion, turned around from net outflow of RM5.0 billion previously. Similarly, year-on-year, portfolio investment switched to net inflow from net outflow of RM28.0 billion in Q3 2011. Reserve Assets: The international reserves of Bank Negara Malaysia decreased RM7.5 billion in Q3 2012 as compared to an increase of RM12.7 billion in Q2 2012, stood at RM421.3 billion as at end of September 2012. Summary and Forecasting of Balance of Payment As you seen that, the balance of trade (export-import) both of goods and services continually decrease between third quarter of 2011 to third quarter of 2011. Especially, the last two quarter (Q2/2012 and Q3/2012). The major reasons are the Eurozone Crisis and Hamburger crisis in United State of America that provide a large impact to Malaysia in term of export of goods and services. In second quarter of 2012 it decrease 19.78 percent from the first quarter of 2012 and it also decrease 14.54 in the third quarter. For these reasons makes Malaysia’s export decline because the European countries and USA are the large market for Malaysian exporter. The financial account is very fluctuating between these five quarters. The causes are Eurozone crisis and Hamburger crisis same as above problems. The investors’ confident are decline. It make the direct investment decrease in the third quarter of 2012 and other investment was negative RM 38,083 million. On the other hand, a lot of investors move their portfolio to Malaysia for avoid the risk and uncertainty in Europe and USA. That makes the portfolio investment surplus RM 27,588 million. In the near future, the balance of payment of Malaysia will be continually decrease in term of balance of trade, current account and the financial account will be increasing. The central bank of Malaysia will cut the interest rate and use the fiscal deficit policy. This cause will make the Malaysia’s citizen has more income and more consumption. Next, Malaysia will import more goods and services to server their people due to the higher purchasing power. In term of financial account will be change in positive way. When the Malaysian government cut the interest rate, it will attract the foreign investors to invest and boost the economy. The portfolio investment will be also surplus because the problems in Europe and USA. So, the investors will avoid their risk by investing in Malaysia’s financial market. References : http://www.statistics.gov.my/portal/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=1324%3Aquarterly-balance-of-payments-performance-julyl-september-2011-updated-18112011&catid=103%3Amalaysia-balance-of-payments&Itemid=153&lang=en http://www.statistics.gov.my/portal/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=1413%3Abop&catid=103%3Amalaysia-balance-of-payments&Itemid=153&lang=en http://www.statistics.gov.my/portal/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=1586%3Abalance-of-payments-first-quarter-2012updated-23052012-&catid=103%3Amalaysia-balance-of-payments&Itemid=153&lang=en http://www.statistics.gov.my/portal/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=1700%3Aquarterly-balance-of-payments-performance-april-june-2012-updated-15082012&catid=103%3Amalaysia-balance-of-payments&Itemid=153&lang=en http://www.statistics.gov.my/portal/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=1797%3Aquarterly-balance-of-payments-third-quarter-2012-updated-16112012&catid=103%3Amalaysia-balance-of-payme nts&Itemid=153&lang=en http://www.tradingeconomics.com/malaysia/net-trade-in-goods-and-services-bop-us-dollar-wb-data.html

Movie Review on the movie entitled “Hook” Essay

Peter has completely forgotten his earlier incarnation, which is probably just as well for his career. Not many high rollers would entrust the fate of an unfriendly corporate takeover to a fellow who has a pal named Tinkerbell and as a mortal enemy a sword-buckled pirate with a hook for a hand. Vincent Canby, 1991 Steven Spielberg’s movie entitled â€Å"Hook† was Peter Pan’s future life. The director showed the life of Peter Pan after his â€Å"ended battle† with his mortal enemy, Captain Hook. Peter married Wendy’s grand daughter but still have a heart towards Wendy. After a long period of time without seeing each other, Peter and Wendy reunited again to reminisce the past but Peter did not think of Captain Hook’s new way of revenge – to capture his children as a favor to his presence in the Never Land. According to Hal Hinson, â€Å"Hook† is the story of Banning’s redemption; it’s an extravagant fable about how Banning recovers his past as Peter Pan, saving himself and his family by (please excuse the psychobabble) reclaiming his inner child. It’s a ’90s movie to the bone, yet another moral lesson for our time. It’s also great fun: big, splashy, energetic, one-size-fits-all Hollywood entertainment. There are different symbolisms, images, and ironies that emerged and developed all throughout the movie. Spielberg’s way of depicting the adult character of Peter Pan showed his strengths as a hero and weaknesses as a person. Tinkerbelle’s loyal character towards Peter Pan became the reason how Peter came back to his home. Wendy has grown old but she feels every situation that happens when it comes to the presence of Hook and other people from Peter’s world. Wendy, Tinkerbelle, and Peter Pan are all depiction of fictional reality that exists in an ideal and real world. The same old room where Wendy and Peter met still exists in this movie. It means that there is still something to happen beneath the big window of this room. Here is where Peter’s children capture and goes to the Never Land. Peter already forgot how to fly, which seemed to be his greatest armor against his enemies. However, through Tinkerbelle’s help, he soon recognizes his life during his childhood that led him to restore his power ad ability to fly. This movie also showed the real feelings of Tinkerbelle towards Peter Pan. She loved him so dearly that is why she is still loyal to Peter from his younger years up to the moment they meet again. For me, it shows that Peter Pain is the ideal man to become a partner of every woman. However, he is not a man of perfection because he could not able to raise his children with emotional attachment. He thinks that by giving them a good life will give him the credit of being a good provider. Peter’s being too busy with his work tends to for get his children’s emotional needs. This scenario shows the battle between being human and extra human being. When Peter came to Never Land, the division of children and adults was depicted. Children’s side is known to be the good ones while the adults’ side is the opposite – the bad ones. Despite of the fact that children in this movie know how to defend themselves, they have no violent armors within them during the time of battle. It shows that the director is sensitive to the limitation of its audiences, which mostly are children. There are two significant sports that were seen in the movie – basketball is the traditional game in Never Land while baseball emerged to become the popular game in the modern period. However, the director showed that baseball was played by the pirates, which means that there is an incorporation of new tradition to the old tradition to justify the difference of the two periods. The symbolisms of watch, hook, â€Å"play-doh† food, and the baseball and basketball ball played an important role to the characters’ establishment as well as the story’s resolution. The watch symbolizes time. The part where Captain Hook destroyed the watches and clock with the help of Peter’s son illustrated the impeding of time in their society. I have seen the reason why Peter’s son also destroyed the clocks is because of his father’s lack of time towards him, her mother, and his sister. It does not really that there is a crocodile, which Hook’s worst enemy aside from Peter Pan but a justification of devastate the transformation of age. At the end of the movie, Captain Hook was seen to be old like Peter Pan. His wig covers his white hair as a representation of old age. Steven Spielberg’s point of view to describe Peter Pan’s adulthood and the concept of being old wanted to convey that everyone gets old and there is no escape with that. Only the memory will obtain childhood through reminiscence of the past. The hook symbolizes strength and weaknesses in both occurrences. According to the Facts of Piracy, a pirate who lost one of his body parts whether a finger, a hand, a foot, an eye, or a limb means that he is already incapable of doing things. This shows Captain Hook is incapable of doing things around him. It means that he is not a reliable and powerful master at all, which is an irony of his character where everyone treats him as a king of all the pirates. It was seen that despite of power that lies within his men, he is a man of nowhere. He is nothing as what a true pirate depicts. That is why every time Hook and Peter Pan take their battle, Hook always kneels unto Peter’s feet not to kill him for he is nothing but an abusive and injustice pirate of his period. Because of this, Captain Hook’s hook was his only armor to hide his incapability and immoral personification of king and master of all pirates in the Never Land. The â€Å"play-doh† food that was seen in the part when Peter and the children of his community are eating their colorful food symbolizes childhood. Robin Williams as Peter Pan showed his life during his childhood when there is no problem, pain, and sorrow – only happiness, simple happiness that represents the Never land’s simple way of living. The baseball and basketball ball signifies circle of life. Peter’s son always played this ball not only because it was his favorite game but it also represents the wheel of survival and living. There are ups and downs, failure and success, happiness and sadness, and discontentment and contentment. All these experiences mould us to become better individuals like Spielberg has conveyed in his movie. It means that life is like a ball in whether situation it may be – we can always feel ups and downs in rounded tops of life. Marjorie Baumgarten stated that Hook breaks the cardinal rule of J.M. Barrie’s timeless fantasy — it grows up. It is true in literal sense because Spielberg made his main characters Hook and Peter Pan grow old. However, he had justified all his thoughts and arguments as well as the reasons why he showed Peter Pan adult life. It seems that it is a depiction of social reality that everyone needs to understand. It is also good enough to show the children audiences that no person lived in young forever for there is not such thing as this concept. Despite of the fact that this movie is a fiction, Spielberg showed that literature is the mirror of the society that everyone needs to live according to the rule of life. Spielberg showed what he wanted to convey in his movie. It is a simple justification of age transformation that can happen to Peter Pan once he grows old. Spielberg did not insist of impose that this is the truth behind Peter Pan’s future but an option or choice to look after if we think of the probable life of Peter Pan once he became a mortal being. In terms of effects, costumes, setting, and characters, Spielberg established the scenarios into a better situation to show the true meaning and essence of Peter Pan’s personality and life after breaking his immortal being. The whole movie tackles one thing – Peter Pan’s existence in reality and his depiction of life as a mortal character. There are some flaws that exist but they are not really significant to the development of the character and the resolution. It shows that this movie is not perfect but it has established the important things and arguments that are needed to be discussed. As a whole, the movie is good in terms of technicalities and the director’s justification to his claim but in terms of breaking the traditional perspective towards Peter Pan immortal being is somehow hard to accept because many of us already live in a realization that Peter Pan does not transform into a complex and unfamiliar person. Works Cited Hinson, Hal. 11 December 1991. ‘Hook.’ â€Å"Washington Post.† 27 February 2008. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/style/longterm/movies/videos/hookpghinson_a0a725.htm Canby, Vincent. 11 December 1991. Hook (1991): Review/Film; Peter as a Middle-Aged Master of the Universe. â€Å"New York Times.† 27 February 2008. http://movies.nytimes.com/movie/review?_r=2&res=9D0CEEDD133EF932A25751C1A967958260&oref=slogin&oref=login Baumgarten, Marjorie. 13 December 1991. Hook. â€Å"Austin Chronicles.† 27 February 2008. http://www.austinchronicle.com/gyrobase/Calendar/Film?Film=oid%3a139216 WilczyÅ„ski, Krzysztof. (2008). Facts on Piracy. 27 February 2008. http://www.piratesinfo.com/detail/detail.php?article_id=57